Much to the chagrin of Dodgers fans and fantasy owners everywhere, Clayton Kershaw’s contract was purchased from Double-A Jacksonville, and he is slated to make his widely anticipated Major League debut on Sunday. Kershaw will enter the majors, and immediately become the youngest active player in the Bigs. In fact, he was the second youngest player at the Double-A level.
The big question right now is whether he can live up to the hype that Dodgers fans desperately need from him and the expectations that fantasy baseball owners have for him. It seems right now that anything less than a Koufaxian performance may be considered a disappointment. Keeping in mind that Kershaw is only two years removed from his high school prom, I am trying to keep my expectations reasonable.
Considering several factors, Kershaw’s most realistic, yet still very optimistic ceiling for 2008 would look to be similar to last year’s rookie campaign of fellow 2006 first-rounder, Tim Lincecum: 4.00 ERA, 150 Ks, 67 BB over 146 innings pitched. The Dodgers will cap Kershaw’s innings at 150 innings, and he already has 43.1 under his belt.
It will be very interesting to see how Kershaw handles the pressure. It is a rarity to see a 20 year old pitching in the Major Leagues these days, and it’s even more to see one live up to fans’ expectations. Felix Hernandez blew everyone away during his rookie year breakout in 2005, at age 19. Rick Ankiel was phenomenal for the Cardinals during his first full season at age 20, before having a mental breakdown during the 2000 playoffs which he never recovered from as a pitcher. Matt Cain and Scott Kazmir who both made their debuts at age 20 have both shown signs of their future greatness as well.
Earlier this month, all eyes were on Kershaw’s May 12th start against the Mobile Bay Bears. There was speculation that if he performed well, Kershaw would replace an injured Esteban Loaiza in the Dodger rotation. The southpaw did not respond impressively, getting yanked in the fourth inning after being tagged for five earned runs. On Sunday, millions more will be watching Kershaw as he debuts against the St. Louis Cardinals. On a much bigger stage, during a much bigger start, will Kershaw have the same type of response? Don’t be surprised if he does, but sooner or later, he will show us why he’s the most highly touted pitching prospect in baseball right now.
