Prior to the first pitch of Florida’s opener today, Neyer lambasted Fredi Gonzalez’s decision to bat Emilio Bonifacio in the leadoff spot of the potent Marlins lineup.
Two points here, both of them so obvious that perhaps you don’t need me to make them. …
One, 30 or 40 or 25 at-bats isn’t really any opportunity at all. Even a good hitter might easily go 8-for-40 (.200) and (by Gonzalez’ logic) lose his job.
Two, Bonifacio’s career averages in the majors against lefties and righties aren’t all that interesting, because he’s not spent a great deal of time in the majors. What are interesting are minor-league splits: .265/.325/.333 against lefties, .310/.364/.402 against righties.
What do those numbers tell us? They tell me that if Bonifacio plays fantastic defense at third base, he might be good enough to be in the lineup against right-handed pitching. Not good enough to lead off, mind you. But good enough to play. They also tell me that he shouldn’t play against lefties, ever.
Bonifacio answered with a 4 hit, 4 run day, which included an inside-the-park home run and 3 steals. Interestingly enough, three of Bonifacio’s hits were against… you guessed it: left-handed pitchers. As for the “fantastic defense” Rob mentioned? Emilio added insult to injury by committing an error in the 6th inning that set the table for Adam Dunn’s 3-run homer.
Tough day for the ESPN columnist. With a 162-game season, he’ll have plenty of time to redeem himself, and Emilio has more than enough time to come back down to earth. I’d expect earth to be somewhere around a .260 batting average and maybe one more round-tripper in 2009.
Fantasy Spin: As spot on as Rob may be with his analysis, it is apparent that Fredi Gonzalez has a different criteria for his leadoff bat. While Bonifacio won’t match his spectacular day at the plate anytime soon, as long as the 23 year-old stays atop the Marlins lineup, you can bet on him scoring runs and stealing a ton of bags (when he actually does reach base, of course). Eventually, I expect Cameron Maybin to hit his way up in the lineup and take the leadoff spot from Bonifacio or whoever else Gonzalez decides to plug into that role.
